Elizabeth Warren’s huge plan for America is complex, very expensive will be opposed by the most powerful people in America. She is gambling that this plan will enable her to win the presidential election. She also hopes that her plan will end inequality in America. However, this plan is so ambitious and so huge and so expensive that I’m afraid that it may sink Warren forever.
Lately I have changed my opinion on this. I now think that Warren’s plan may be just the thing we need to defeat trump.
Without any more ado, here are the essentials of her plan. These are just the barest of bones of her plan.
The total cost of Warren’s plan will be $30 trillion over the next ten years. There are several parts to her plan. These parts are enumerated below:
Education and child care will cost $2.9 trillion. Warren would pay for this with a new wealth tax.
Climate change will cost $3 trillion. This will be paid for by a new tax on corporate profits and by reversing the tax cuts on the wealthy that Trump passed a couple of years ago.
Increase social security by an average of $200 a month for every person in America. This will cost $3.1 trillion. Warren would pay for this by a tax on the investments of the rich and a new payroll tax on high earners.
Affordable housing will cost $500 billion. This will be paid for by expanding the estate tax.
Misc improvements like rural broadband and fixing the opioid crisis would cost $410 billion. Warren would pay for this by eliminating tax benefits on inherited assets.
Medicare-For-All would cost a whopping $20.5 trillion. This is twice the cost of Warren’s other benefits added together. Warren would pay for this by the following methods:
A) Impose a new tax on employers that ends up costing them the same as they are now paying for health care of their employees.
B) An increase in the existing taxes paid by the middle classes. But the middle class ends up saving money. The middle class will no longer have to pay their existing health insurance premiums, this will cause their take home pay to go up and their taxes will be higher. But somewhat higher taxes minus what they save on insurance premiums will end up being a huge savings for them.
C) An additional tax on the wealthiest 1%. This will be a tax on capital gains which will be paid annually rather then when the assets are sold. There will also be an additional wealth tax on all billionaires.
D) Higher corporate taxation. This will raise taxes on money made in foreign countries and implement a tax on financial transactions like stock trades.
E) Overhaul the immigration laws to allow more immigrants into America, make them legal and then collect additional taxes on the earnings of these immigrants.
F) Cut military spending
Paul Krugman, the progressive economist who writes for the New York Times, has been worried about whether Warren can come up with a workable way to pay for Warren’s Medicare for all. Krugman says that Warren has indeed come up with a very professional and workable analysis for paying for this part of the plan.
Here is what Krugman has to say:
“Well, the Warren plan is now out. And I’d say that she passed the test. “
“Warren needed to show that she was working the problem. And she did. She brought in real experts like Donald Berwick, who ran Medicare during the Obama years, and Betsey Stevenson, former chief economist at the Labor Department. And they have produced a serious plan. As I said, experts will argue with the numbers, but this is the real thing — not some left-leaning version of voodoo economics.”
The total cost of Warren’s Elizabeth Warren’s huge plan for America would cost the Federal government $30.5 trillion over the next ten years. This is more than is now paid for social security and medicare combined. Both social security and medicare for the elderly will of course still be paid even if Warren can implement her new plan. So Warren’s new proposals are on top of the current cost of social security and medicare.
Warren also makes some large assumptions that may or may not work out.
She assumes the rich will pay her wealth taxes and not just dodge them. Which is almost a given.
She also assumes Congress will pass all of her proposals. However, Congress may or may not pass Warren’s proposals. The Federal government will currently spend 58 trillion over the next ten years. If congress does pass all of Warren’s proposals, this would increase federal spending by 50%, a very large increase.
In my opinion it is going to be very hard for Warren to win the election on the basis of this plan. And I think it would be even harder to get Congress to implement this plan if she can get elected.
Don’t get me wrong. I think this plan is exactly what America needs and if it could all get implemented I think it very well could save American Democracy and restore the now tarnished image of America all over the world.
I think it is a tremendous plan. And it is an incredibly courageous plan. I have nothing but the utmost admiration for Elizabeth Warren and her plan. Someone had to spell out what really needs to be done.
But I’m very afraid that Elizabeth Warren’s huge plan for America may make her unelectable. I also think it would be impossible to convince Congress to implement this plan. And I think Warren realizes this. Her real plan may be to just spell out what needs to be done to fix America. Her real hope may be that this plan or parts of it may be adapted in the future. Someone really had to say all the things she is now proposing.
Franklin Roosevelt actually accomplished something like this with his New Deal. But he did it in the midst of the worst economic depression the world has ever seen. Something radical clearly had to be done. So the American people and the Washington establishment allowed him to get on with if.
But, I don’t think the American situation is desperate enough yet for Warren to pass a similar plan. But the time may be coming. If the economy crashes before the 2020 election, that may be enough to allow Warren to be elected and to implement her plan.
Or if Trump and the Republicans are reelected in 2020 and we have to live through another four years of their horrendous misrule and attempts to create a tyranny in America, then there may be enough desire for Warren’s New, New Deal.
But if things stay the way they are now. I don’t think it can happen.
Here are some immediate problems I see that will probably keep Warren from being elected.
I’m guessing that the white working class will think Warren’s plan will raise their taxes in order to give free money to lazy loafers, blacks and spongers. I’m afraid they will see this as just one more Democratic Tax and Spend plan. Trump will definitely try to push this old bit of propaganda. He will be sure to tell his base all about how Warren’s plan is a giveaway to all those people they hate, like blacks, immigrants and Muslims.
And the rich will surely hate Warren’s plan. Since her plan will be very, very expensive for the rich, they will fight her plan tooth and nail until the end of time. And since the very rich are the ones who control Washington and our government, they will probably succeed very easily.
It looks to me like Elizabeth Warren’s huge plan for America is doomed to fail, at least this time around. Probably both the working class and the rich will do their best to shred it. And the Republicans will certainly distort both the costs and real benefits of Warren’s plan beyond recognition.
I hope I’m 100% wrong on this and that both Warren and her huge plan are somehow a great success, if not now later on. But I’m afraid that at this time it cannot be.
As I said in the opening paragraph, I am now (one week later) much more optimistic about Elizabeth Warren’s huge plan for America. Basically, I’m thinking if Warren tries to be a moderate, if she scales her plan down to the same old ho-hum ,tiny, incremental increase in health care she will just look like just Hillary Clinton looked in 2016. She will be just another compromised, establishment politician lying through her teeth, trying to get elected.
Those days are now gone. What America needs right now is big radical plan that will really make this country a place where the middle class and the working people can have good, decent lives once again. We don’t need the same old tired politicians again. We need some real revolutionaries with a huge daring plan who have the guts to really try to change America or go down in flames trying as hard as they can.
I sincerely think this might be Elizabeth Warren.
Here is more information on Elizabeth Warren’s huge plan for America.